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The actual demand and the forecast for a product are shown below. Calculate MAE and MSE. Show all of your computations. The actual demand and the forecast for a product are shown below. Calculate MAE and MSE. Show all of your computations.

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Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the most recent time series value?


A) exponential smoothing with α = .3
B) exponential smoothing with α = .2
C) moving average using the most recent 4 periods
D) moving average using the most recent 3 periods

E) A) and C)
F) B) and D)

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Below you are given some values of a time series consisting of 27 time periods. Below you are given some values of a time series consisting of 27 time periods.   ​ The estimated quadratic regression equation for these data is T<sub>t</sub> = 14.25 + .45t + .21t<sup>2</sup> The forecasted value for time period 28 is A)  32.73. B)  100.7. C)  109.5. D)  191.49. ​ The estimated quadratic regression equation for these data is Tt = 14.25 + .45t + .21t2 The forecasted value for time period 28 is


A) 32.73.
B) 100.7.
C) 109.5.
D) 191.49.

E) All of the above
F) A) and C)

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Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?


A) 0
B) .1
C) .5
D) 1.0

E) B) and D)
F) A) and B)

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The time series component that exhibits a repeating pattern over successive periods, often one-year intervals is called a(n) _____ component.


A) trend
B) seasonal
C) cyclical
D) irregular

E) All of the above
F) A) and B)

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You are given the following information on the seasonal-irregular component values for a quarterly time series: You are given the following information on the seasonal-irregular component values for a quarterly time series:   ​ The seasonal index for Quarter 1 is A)  .997. B)  1.2. C)  4. D)  3. ​ The seasonal index for Quarter 1 is


A) .997.
B) 1.2.
C) 4.
D) 3.

E) None of the above
F) A) and C)

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Which of the following is not present in a time series?


A) seasonality
B) cross-sectional pattern
C) trend
D) cyclical pattern

E) A) and B)
F) All of the above

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The time series pattern that exists when the data fluctuate around a constant mean is the _____ pattern.


A) horizontal
B) trend
C) seasonal
D) cyclical

E) A) and B)
F) A) and C)

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A sequence of observations on a variable measured at successive periods of time is known as a(n)


A) trend component.
B) time series.
C) forecast.
D) additive time series model.

E) None of the above
F) All of the above

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Given an actual demand of 50, its forecast of 53, and an α of .2, what would be the forecast for the next period using exponential smoothing?


A) 52.4
B) 58.9
C) 61.0
D) 50.6

E) C) and D)
F) B) and C)

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For the following time series, you are given the moving average forecast. For the following time series, you are given the moving average forecast.   ​ The mean squared error equals A)  42.5. B)  20.25. C)  170. D)  0. ​ The mean squared error equals


A) 42.5.
B) 20.25.
C) 170.
D) 0.

E) A) and C)
F) B) and C)

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