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Exam 5: Extension: Decision Theory

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Question 21

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A decision tree is:

A) an algebraic representation of alternatives.
B) a behavioral representation of alternatives.
C) a matrix representation of alternatives.
D) a schematic representation of alternatives.
E) limited to a maximum of 12 branches.

F) D) and E)
G) A) and E)

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Question 22

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Consider the following decision scenario: $\begin{array} {r} { \text { State of Nature } } \\\begin{array} { | l | l | l | } \hline & \text { Yes } & \text { No } \\\hline \text { Small } & \$ 10 ^ { * } & 30 \\\hline \text { Medium } & 20 & 40 \\\hline \text { Med.-Large } & 30 & 45 \\\hline \text { Large } & 40 & 35 \\\hline \text { Ex-Large } & 60 & 20 \\\hline\end{array}\end{array}$ *PV for profits ($000) The maximax strategy would be:

A) small.
B) medium.
C) med.-large.
D) large.
E) ex-large.

F) A) and E)
G) C) and E)

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Question 23

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The new owner of a beauty shop is trying to decide whether to hire one, two, or three beauticians. She estimates that profits next year (in thousands of dollars) will vary with demand for her services, and she has estimated demand in three categories, low, medium, and high. $\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | } \hline { \begin{array} { l } \text { NUMBER } \\\text { OF } \\\text { BEAUTICIANS }\end{array} } & { \text { DEMAND } } \\\hline & \text { LOW } & \text { MEDIUM } & \text { HIGH } \\\hline \text { One } & 50 & 75 & 100 \\\hline \text { Two } & 0 & 100 & 100 \\\hline \text { Three } & - 100 & 70 & 300 \\\hline\end{array}$ If she uses the minimax regret criterion, how many beauticians will she decide to hire?

The advertising manager for Roadside Restaurants, Inc., needs to decide whether to spend this month's budget for advertising on print media, television, or a mixture of the two. She estimates that the cost per thousand "hits" (readers or viewers) will vary depending upon the success of the new cable television network she plans to use, as follows: $\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l|} \hline { \text { Strategy } } & { \text { Cable Network } } \\\hline & \text { Successful } & &\text { Failure } \\ \hline \text { Print } & \$ 10 && 10 \\\hline \text { Mixed } & 4 & &14 \\\hline \text { Television } & 1 && 21 \\\hline\end{array}$ If she feels that there is a 60 percent chance that the new cable network will be successful, what is her expected cost (per thousand "hits") under certainty?

The local operations manager for the Internal Revenue Service must decide whether to hire one, two, or three temporary tax examiners for the upcoming tax season. She estimates that net revenues (in thousands of dollars) will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code just passed by Congress, as follows: $\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | } \hline { \begin{array} { l } \text { NUMBER } \\\text { OF } \\\text { EXAMINERS }\end{array} } & { \text { COMPLIANCE } } \\\hline & \text { LOW } & \text { NORMAL } & \text { HIGH } \\\hline \text { One } & 50 & 50 & 50 \\\hline \text { Two } & 100 & 60 & 20 \\\hline \text { Three } & 150 & 70 & - 10 \\\hline\end{array}$ If she uses the maximin criterion, how many new examiners will she decide to hire?

One local hospital has just enough space and funds currently available to start either a cancer or heart research lab. If administration decides on the cancer lab, there is a 20 percent chance of getting $100,000 in outside funding from the American Cancer Society next year, and an 80 percent chance of getting nothing. If the cancer research lab is funded the first year, no additional outside funding will be available the second year. However, if it is not funded the first year, then management estimates the chances are 50 percent it will get $100,000 the following year, and 50 percent that it will get nothing again. If, however, the hospital's management decides to go with the heart lab, then there is a 50 percent chance of getting $50,000 in outside funding from the American Heart Association the first year and a 50 percent change of getting nothing. If the heart lab is funded the first year, management estimates a 40 percent chance of getting another $50,000 and a 60 percent chance of getting nothing additional the second year. If it is not funded the first year, then management estimates a 60 percent chance for getting $50,000 and a 40 percent chance for getting nothing in the following year. For both the cancer and heart research labs, no further possible funding is anticipated beyond the first two years. What is the probability that the heart lab will be funded in both the first and second years?

If the minimum expected regret is computed, it indicates to a decision maker the expected:

Bounded rationality refers to the limits imposed on decision making because of costs, human abilities, time, technology, and/or availability of information.

The advertising manager for Roadside Restaurants, Inc., needs to decide whether to spend this month's budget for advertising on print media, television, or a mixture of the two. She estimates that the cost per thousand "hits" (readers or viewers) will vary depending upon the success of the new cable television network she plans to use, as follows: $\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l|} \hline { \text { Strategy } } & { \text { Cable Network } } \\\hline & \text { Successful } & &\text { Failure } \\ \hline \text { Print } & \$ 10 && 10 \\\hline \text { Mixed } & 4 & &14 \\\hline \text { Television } & 1 && 21 \\\hline\end{array}$ If she feels that there is a 60 percent chance that the new cable network will be successful, what is her expected cost (per thousand "hits") for the strategy she will select?

The local operations manager for the Internal Revenue Service must decide whether to hire one, two, or three temporary tax examiners for the upcoming tax season. She estimates that net revenues (in thousands of dollars) will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code just passed by Congress, as follows: $\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | } \hline { \begin{array} { l } \text { NUMBER } \\\text { OF } \\\text { EXAMINERS }\end{array} } & { \text { COMPLIANCE } } \\\hline & \text { LOW } & \text { NORMAL } & \text { HIGH } \\\hline \text { One } & 50 & 50 & 50 \\\hline \text { Two } & 100 & 60 & 20 \\\hline \text { Three } & 150 & 70 & - 10 \\\hline\end{array}$ If she uses the Laplace criterion, how many new examiners will she decide to hire?

The owner of Tastee Cookies needs to decide whether to lease a small, medium, or large new retail outlet. She estimates that monthly profits will vary with demand for her cookies as follows: $\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|}\hline\text {SIZE}\\\text {OF}&\text {DEMAND}\\\hline \text { OUTLET } & \text { LOW } && \text { HIGH } \\\hline \text { Small } & \$ 1,000 && 1,000 \\\hline \text { Medium } & 500 && 2,500 \\\hline \text { Large } & 0 && 3,000 \\\hline\end{array}$ For what range of probability that demand will be high, will she decide to lease the small facility?

Which phrase best describes the term "bounded rationality"?

The difference between expected payoff under certainty and expected payoff under risk is the expected:

In reaching a decision, the alternative with the lowest cost should be ranked number 1.

The advertising manager for Roadside Restaurants, Inc., needs to decide whether to spend this month's budget for advertising on print media, television, or a mixture of the two. She estimates that the cost per thousand "hits" (readers or viewers) will vary depending upon the success of the new cable television network she plans to use, as follows: $\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l|} \hline { \text { Strategy } } & { \text { Cable Network } } \\\hline & \text { Successful } & &\text { Failure } \\ \hline \text { Print } & \$ 10 && 10 \\\hline \text { Mixed } & 4 & &14 \\\hline \text { Television } & 1 && 21 \\\hline\end{array}$ If she uses the maximin criterion, which advertising strategy will she use?

Suppose a firm has decided to break its departments down into smaller units. While this likely will help with __________ issues, it raises the possibility that poor decisions will result due to __________.

A tabular presentation that shows the outcome for each decision alternative under the various possible states of nature is called a:

The advertising manager for Roadside Restaurants, Inc., needs to decide whether to spend this month's budget for advertising on print media, television, or a mixture of the two. She estimates that the cost per thousand "hits" (readers or viewers) will vary depending upon the success of the new cable television network she plans to use, as follows: $\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l|} \hline { \text { Strategy } } & { \text { Cable Network } } \\\hline & \text { Successful } & &\text { Failure } \\ \hline \text { Print } & \$ 10 && 10 \\\hline \text { Mixed } & 4 & &14 \\\hline \text { Television } & 1 && 21 \\\hline\end{array}$ If she feels that there is a 60 percent chance that the new cable network will be successful, what is her expected value (per thousand "hits") of perfect information?

A systemic view of the organization and its operations processes can help minimize the risk of __________ leading to a poor decision.

The local operations manager for the Internal Revenue Service must decide whether to hire one, two, or three temporary tax examiners for the upcoming tax season. She estimates that net revenues (in thousands of dollars) will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code just passed by Congress, as follows: $\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | } \hline { \begin{array} { l } \text { NUMBER } \\\text { OF } \\\text { EXAMINERS }\end{array} } & { \text { COMPLIANCE } } \\\hline & \text { LOW } & \text { NORMAL } & \text { HIGH } \\\hline \text { One } & 50 & 50 & 50 \\\hline \text { Two } & 100 & 60 & 20 \\\hline \text { Three } & 150 & 70 & - 10 \\\hline\end{array}$ If she feels the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20 percent, 30 percent, and 50 percent respectively, what is her expected value of perfect information?